Human Longevity in the FutureDr. Leonid A. Gavrilov takes a look at our potential future in The Future of Human Health and Longevity He notes that many of our social systems are dependent on assumptions about our lifespan, including our personal planning for the contingencies of old age. Demographers predict that lifespan will not increase in this century, and may even decrase -- as it has already in parts of HIV/AIDS stricken Africa and politically chaotic Russia. One threat to our cumulative life expectency is infectious diseases: The spread of epidemics depends critically on the proportion of vulnerable people with compromised immune system, who become disease vectors. This proportion of potential disease vectors is rising dramatically now because of population aging, HIV/AIDS epidemic, immunosuppressive drugs used during organ transplantation, and immunosuppressive effects of cancer therapies. The human population is becoming like a dense forest with a lot of dry wood ready to burn. And the development of antibiotic resistent strains of bacteria bodes ill for our ability to deal with any new epidemic. But this scenario ignores one important factor: the advancing rate of technological developments. The growth of technological advance has been exponential -- science and technology are based on the research and discoveries that have gone before, and this body of knowlege grows over time, fueling further advancements. Many scientists now believe that, for the first time in human history, we have come close to understanding the nature of human aging and possible ways to defeat it. A growing number of scientists are beginning to believe in this 'fountain of youth' vision for the future. Once convinced it is feasible, has science ever failed to achieve results of some sort? Those results may not be easily predicted, but there seems little doubt something is going to change. |
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